Kamis, 29 September 2011

Bertita fundamental di bawah

persediaan minyak mentah AS komersial minyak meningkat sebesar 1,9 juta barel dalam pekan yang berakhir 23 September Administrasi Informasi Energi AS mengatakan bahwa pada 341,0 juta barel, US persediaan minyak mentah hanya di atas batas atas dari kisaran rata-rata untuk saat ini tahun. Jumlah persediaan bensin kendaraan meningkat 0,8 juta barel pekan lalu dan berada di atas batas atas kisaran rata-rata. Persediaan bensin jadi tetap tidak berubah sementara pencampuran komponen persediaan meningkat pekan lalu.distilasi persediaan bahan bakar meningkat sebesar 0,1 juta barel pekan lalu dan di batas atas dari kisaran rata-rata untuk sepanjang tahun. Propane / propilena persediaan meningkat sebesar 0,9 juta barel pekan lalu dan berada di bawah batas bawah kisaran rata-rata. Jumlah persediaan minyak komersial meningkat sebesar 1,1 juta barel pekan lalu. Cerita disediakan oleh StockMarketWire.com

Setelah berita ini GBP/USD mengalamin penurunan,, begitu juga EUR/USD. saya mendapat profit berkisar 1.5581 GBP/USD dan 1.3607 di EUR/USD. di masing-masing pairs mata uang ini saya mendapatkan keuntungan 20 poin. dan saya rasa akan bearis ke 1.5535 dan kita lihat saja nananti...ha

Sori, saya harus menghentikan analisais ini dikareakan saya sedang mabuk berat....!!!! sampai jumpa besok...!

Menurut saya, setiap ada pengupayaan pasti ada kenaikan atau prestasi apalagi kelemahan itu sudah di ketahui.. saya rasa uero ada kenaikan dalam beberapa minggu ini...

Senin, 26 September 2011

Likuiditas

Likuiditas adalah kemampuan perusahaan dalam memenuhi kewajiban jangka pendeknya. Pengertian lain adalah kemampuan seseorang atau perusahaan untuk memenuhi kewajiban atau utang yang segera harus dibayar dengan harta lancarnya [1].

Daftar isi

[sembunyikan]

[sunting]Pengukuran likuiditas

Likuiditas diukur dengan rasio aktiva lancar dibagi dengan kewajiban lancar. Perusahaan yang memiliki likuiditas sehat paling tidak memiliki rasio lancar sebesar 100%. Ukuran likuiditas perusahaan yang lebih menggambarkan tingkat likuiditas perusahaan ditunjukkan dengan rasio kas (kas terhadap kewajiban lancar).

Rasio likuiditas antara lain terdiri dari: Current Ratio : adalah membandingkan antara total aktiva lancar dengan kewajiban lancar. Quick Ratio: adalah membandingkan antara (total aktiva lancar - inventory) dengan kewajiban lancar.

[sunting]Lihat pula

[sunting]Pranala luar

[sunting]Rujukan

ECB (Bank Sentral Eropa)

Bank Sentral Eropa (bahasa Inggris: European Central Bank, ECB) di Frankfurt am Main, Jerman adalah bank sentral Eropa, yang bertanggung jawab kebijakan moneter untuk 16 negara yang menggunakan mata uang euro.

Lihat pula

[sunting]Pranala luar

Federal Reserve System

Federal Reserve System (juga disebut Federal Reserve, atau secara informal The Fed) adalah bank sentral Amerika Serikat. Lembaga ini didirikan pada tahun 1913 dengan diberlakukannya Undang-Undang Federal Reserve, terutama sebagai respon kepanikan finansial pada tahun 1907. Seiring dengan waktu, tugas dan fungsi Federal Reserve System berkembang dan strukturnya juga mengalami perubahan. Kejadian seperti Depresi Besar merupakan beberapa faktor utama yang menyebabkan perubahan sistem ini. Menurut dokomentasi resmi, tugas utama Federal Reserve adalah:

  1. Menyelenggarakan kebijakan moneter negara dengan mempengaruhi kondisi moneter dan kredit dalam ekonomi dengan tujuan penyerapan tenaga kerja yang maksimal, harga yang stabil, serta tingkat suku bunga jangka panjang yang moderat
  2. Melakukan pengawasan dan regulasi atas institusi perbankan untuk menjamin keamanan perbankan nasional dan sistem finansial nasional, serta melakukan perlindungan terhadap hak-hak kredit konsumen
  3. Menjaga stabilitas sistem finansial dan risiko sistemik di dalamnya yang dapat muncul pada pasar finansial
  4. Menyediakan layanan finansial kepada lembaga penyimpanan, pemerintah Amerika Serikat, serta institusi resmi asing, termasuk memainkan peran penting dalam menjalankan sistem pembayaran nasional.

Federal Reserve System tidak dimiliki oleh siapapun dan bukanlah lembaga privat yang mencari keuntungan. Lembaga ini merupakan entitas independen di dalam pemerintahan. Menurut Federal Reserve, saat ini terdapat 5 bagian pada Federal Reserve System:

  1. Dewan Gubernur yang ditunjuk oleh Presiden, sebuah lembaga pemerintah di Washington, D.C.
  2. Komisi Pasar Terbuka Federal, yang mengawasi operasi pasar terbuka, sebuah alat utama kebijakan moneter nasional
  3. 12 Bank Sentral Federal, lembaga privat yang terdapat di kota-kota utama di Amerika Serikat, yang membagi negara ini ke dalam 12 distrik, yang berfungsi sebagai agen fiskal untuk Bendahara Negara Amerika Serikat, dimana pada setiap bank memiliki 9 anggota Dewan Direksi.
  4. Beberapa lembaga penasihat

Struktur bank sentral di Amerika Serikat cukup unik apabila dibandingkan dengan bank sentral di negara lain, yakni bank sentral Amerika Serikat tidak memiliki hak untuk mencetak mata uang, dimana dimiliki oleh Departemen Keuangan Amerika Serikat.

[sunting]Pranala luar

G20

G-20 atau Kelompok 20 ekonomi utama adalah kelompok 19 negara dengan perekonomian besar di dunia ditambah dengan Uni Eropa. Secara resmi G-20 dinamakan The Group of Twenty (G-20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors atau Kelompok Duapuluh Menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentral. Kelompok ini dibentuk tahun 1999 sebagai forum yang secara sistematis menghimpun kekuatan-kekuatan ekonomi maju dan berkembang untuk membahas isu-isu penting perekonomian dunia. Pertemuan perdana G-20 berlangsung diBerlin, 15-16 Desember 1999 dengan tuan rumah menteri keuangan Jerman dan Kanada.[1]

Latar belakang pembentukan forum ini berawal dari terjadinya Krisis Keuangan 1998 dan pendapat yang muncul pada forum G-7 mengenai kurang efektifnya pertemuan itu bila tidak melibatkan kekuatan-kekuatan ekonomi lain agar keputusan-keputusan yang mereka buat memiliki pengaruh yang lebih besar dan mendengarkan kepentingan-kepentingan yang barangkali tidak tercakup dalam kelompok kecil itu. Kelompok ini menghimpun hampir 90% GNP dunia, 80% total perdagangan dunia dan dua per tiga penduduk dunia.

Sebagai forum ekonomi, G-20 lebih banyak menjadi ajang konsultasi dan kerja sama hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan sistem moneter internasional. Terdapat pertemuan yang teratur untuk mengkaji, meninjau, dan mendorong diskusi di antara negara industri maju dan sedang berkembang terkemuka mengenai kebijakan-kebijakan yang mengarah pada stabilitas keuangan internasional dan mencari upaya-upaya pemecahan masalah yang tidak dapat diatasi oleh satu negara tertentu saja. Baca selengkapnya:

GBP/USD Outlook – September 26-30

The British pound had another week of suffering. Where will it find a bottom? The upcoming week leans towards housing indicators. Here is an outlook for the British events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Britain is getting closer to another round of QE, perhaps as early as next month. This is what was seen in the meeting minutes, and it hurt the pound. On the same day, Ben Bernanke didn’t provide any hints whatsoever for QE3 and settled for Operation Twist. This was a huge blow for the pound.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:GBP/USD Chart September 26 30 2011

  1. Nationwide HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. This house price index always has a strong impact on the pound. After a few months of small changes, Nationwide reported a relatively big drop of 0.6% in prices of homes. This hurt the pound. Another drop, though smaller, is likely now.
  2. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 10:00. The Confederation of British Industry reported three consecutive months of lower sales volume with retailers and wholesalers – this is seen in negative numbers. A rise from last month’s -14 is expected now, but the number will likely remain negative.
  3. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Wednesday, 8:30. This quarterly survey examines the situation of credit at all levels of the economy. Recent credit conditions have deteriorated, and this will likely be reflected in this official report.
  4. Net Lending to Individuals: Thursday, 8:30. Following the previous indicator, lending to individuals has been lower than expected in the past two months, indicating less economic activity and paving the way for QE2 in Britain. A similar number to last month’s 0.9 billion is expected now.
  5. Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 8:30. Though slightly overshadowed by the previous figure, this official housing sector number is important. Approvals have been stable between 45K to 49K lately. A small drop from last month’s 49k is expected now.
  6. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:00. The flow of economic indicators ends with a survey of 2300 consumers. According to GfK, pessimism rules. The score fell from -30 to -31 last month, and is likely to tick even lower now.

* All times are GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar began the week with a gap below the 1.5780 line, and couldn’t recover from there. After some struggle with the 1.5650 line (mentioned last week) the pair made a free fall and stabilized only around the 1.5350 line.

Technical levels from top to bottom

We begin with a lower line this time. 1.5910, which was a peak many months ago, gave a fight, but was eventually broken and is distinct line separating ranges. Any recovery attempt will meet fierce resistance here. 1.5823, which worked as stubborn support early in the year is now minor resistance.

It is closely followed by the swing low of 1.5780, a minor resistance in 2010, which is high resistance now. 1.5706 was a previous low and is minor support.

1.5650 was a clear line separating ranges at the beginning of the year and provided its high importance just now. 1.5550 is the next line below after providing support back in December, and is only minor.

1.5480 has a minor role as support after working as resistance a long time ago. It now worked as distinct resistance for the recovery attempt.

1.5350 was the last line last week and it eventually provided some support, despite attempts to break lower. Below, 1.5295 was a swing low at around September 2010 and is now weak support.

1.5240, which capped the pair quite stubbornly in August 2010 is stronger support. Lower, 1.5120 was a stepping stone for the pound on the way up. The last line is very round 1.50.

I remain bearish on GBP/USD.

The lack of a big move by the Federal Reserve and the progress of the MPC towards more QE in the UK make room for more falls in GBP/USD. The crisis in Europe adds to the weight on the pound. Also GBP/JPY is vulnerable after hitting record lows.

EUR / USD Outlook - September 26-30

Euro/dollar slid to a 7 month low. Greece continues to float between the next tranche of aid to the trenches. Will the fate of this debt hit country be known this week? Apart from Greece, the calendar is very busy and we will get hints on a possible rate cut by the ECB. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The big blow to the euro and to most currencies came from Ben Bernanke. The Fed announced “Operation Twist” but provided downbeat language on the economy and no further easing steps such as QE3. The impact of Bernanke on financial markets will likely accompany us for many months to come.

Update: Reports say that an “orderly default” is planned for Greece in 6 weeks. Here is what this means for the 6 critical countries and the impact on the euro.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:EUR/USD Chart September 26 30 2011

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. This survey from Europe’s No. 1 think tank always rocks the euro. It usually exceeds expectations and rises, but last month was different, with a drop to 108.7 points. This hurt the euro. Another slide to 107 points is expected now.
  2. GfK German Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 6:00. This survey of 2000 consumers has been very stable in recent months, showing that German consumers are still doing well. A tick down from last month’s 5.2 points is expected now.
  3. M3 Money Supply: Tuesday, 8:00. More money in circulation means more activity and more potential inflation. This is one of the factors that the ECB takes into consideration. The pace of expansion has slowed down to 2% last month. A similar number is likely now.
  4. German CPI: Wednesday. This is the preliminary release, and is published separated for each German state. After remaining unchanged last month, this leading inflation indicator will likely show small drop in prices now, helping the ECB to lower the rates.
  5. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. This indicator is the best expression of the German strength. While it fell below expectations in recent months, this figure has still shown a steady drop in unemployment. A marginally bigger drop than last month’s -8K number is estimated now.
  6. German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. After a big jump two months ago, no correction was seen, and retail sales continued rising, by 0.3%. Germany will likely see a small dip in volume now: 0.4%.
  7. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest economy will publish consumer spending numbers for two months. After a few straight months of drops in spending, French consumers upped their spending two months ago by 1.2%. The figures that will be published now might offset each other, but the general direction will likely be more squeeze.
  8. CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 9:00. Inflation in the euro area has stabilized at a pace of 2.5%, lower than in previous months. Inflation is already less of a worry to the ECB, which changed its recent forecasts to balanced inflation and downside risks to growth. Lower inflation is expected now, but it will probably remain above the 2% target.
  9. Unemployment Rate: Friday,9:00. The unemployment rate in the euro-zone has edged up to 10% after many months at 9.9%. The same depressing figure is expected now. Note that there is a big gap between countries like Spain, with more than 20% unemployment, and countries in the north with single digit figures.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

€/$ began the week with a big Sunday gap. When it finally closed the gap at around 1.3788 (discussed last week), the big plunge began. The pair fell as low as 1.3385 before consolidating.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from a lower line this week. 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges. The pair got quite close to it a few weeks, and it remains strong resistance in the horizon. The swing low of 1.3838 held the pair and after EUR/USD fell to a six month low was a distinct line separating ranges during September.

1.3750 managed to cap the pair on a recovery attempt and is minor resistance. The round number of 1.37 is another minor resistance line at the moment. It served as resistance early in the year.

The low of 1.3630 seen in earlier is already more important resistance. 1.3550 provided support early in September and then switched to resistance after the fall.

The round number of 1.35 was a trough early in September remains a pivotal line. Very serious support is at 1.3430. This is a modification of the 1.3440 line, after the break. It separated ranges in a very clear way many times in the past, making it of very high importance.

The bottom at 1.3385 made just now is also of importance, as a break below this line will be a fresh 8 month low. Minor support is at 1.3322, which was a resistance line in the past.

More important resistance is at 1.3250 which held the pair early in the year. It’s followed by 1.3180 which worked as significant support in December 2010 and is now weak.

A key line before the round number of 1.30 is support at 1.3080. Towards the end of 2010, it prevented deeper falls.

The ultimate trough of 2011 at 1.2873.

I am bearish on EUR/USD.

Some currencies suffered more from Bernanke’s twist and scream. But now the focus returns to the euro and to the deep complications regarding Greece. There’s room for more falls. Note that the new austerity measures currently lack a majority in the Greek parliament, so this won’t be so easy.

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Further reading: